Wisconsin Tuesday Cometh

Another Tuesday, another chasm, another cliff, another turning point, another do-or-die, another shape shift.

The interminable 2016 presidential race, which actually began and also turned completely upside-down way back in 2015 — when Donald Trump announced he was running for sure and for certain and seriously — hits another landmark Tuesday.

This is no longer Super Tuesday, which was quite some time ago and was not, as it turned out, quite so super. This is the Tuesday “that could reshape the GOP race,” according to one headline, a headline that was probably used before Super Tuesday, and the SEC Tuesday, and the Southern Tuesday and last Tuesday. Come to think of it, this could still be the Tuesday that could reshape the Democratic race (although maybe not).

This is all about Wisconsin, where both the Republicans and the Democrats are holding primaries.

The Republican field — once a fat and noisy field of 17 or so — has now been whittled down to three: a suddenly stumbling and reeling Donald Trump, the front runner nationally but trailing in the Wisconsin polls; a confident-looking but still unappealing Ted Cruz; and Ohio governor John Kasich.

On the Democratic side, Bernie Sanders is like the uninvited ex-husband at the wedding; he just won’t go away until they pass out the cake and he has a head of steam, enough so that the polls show him winning in Wisconsin over Hillary Clinton.

You can look at this in several ways, and God knows we all do. Trump, in ways that always seem shocking and astounding, has managed to have a very bad time of it lately, but in entirely Trumpish ways.

Can Trump trump this? The question is asked after every gaffe and misstep and foot-in-mouth comment week after week. The answer is always yes. This is usually followed by a sentence that begins with “Maybe this time…” (not to be confused with the song from “Cabaret”). Maybe this time Trump has said too much, gone too far, insulted too many and offered up one too many lies, exaggerations, falsehoods and unbelievable claims that are passed off as facts.

This time, his campaign manager — noted for letting Trump be Trump — was charged with assault after an incident with a female reporter. Trump, even after videos clearly showed that there was physical contact, stood by his man. Trump also claimed that women who had abortions ought to be punished, then quickly retreated like a man trying to pick up and put back together an egg he dropped on the sidewalk. In various interviews, he said he might use nukes, or wanted Korea (South, not North) and Japan to have nukes; claimed we were paying too much for NATO; and sundry other questionable long-term visions of foreign policy. If you enlarge the timeline, he and Cruz fought over each other’s wives.

It’s clearly not a banner time for Trump. Cruz has a lead in Wisconsin and it’s said that, if he wins, the race might be irrevocably changed, that no one would come to the convention with the necessary delegates and that there would be a brokered convention. Maybe this time…

Cruz has benefitted from all this of course, and the so-called Republican establishment appears to be rationalizing itself into possibly backing a man the entire Republican side of the Senate, not to mention the other side, dislikes. He may not be — as Trump repeatedly calls him — Lying Ted, but he has yet to reach likable, trustworthy status either. Lindsay Graham, who’s reduced to backing Cruz, said the choice between the two is like choosing to die by gunshot or poison, or something like that.

It may be that some people are noticing that neither emperor-aspirant has clothes, but then that observation has been there for anybody who wants to look. It’s not a pretty sight, to be sure. You can also bet that the Trump followers who have packed his rallies (he has promised to reduce their number) will stick with him, because in truth, there is no one else that speaks, if not for them, at least to them. Which means that Trump will have to remain Trump no matter how many position papers he reads on a teleprompter, written by statesmen from the Bush (that would be Senior) days.

And, lest we forget, there’s John Kasich. And that’s just the problem: We have forgotten John Kasich. By any rational thinking, the establishment types ought to be flocking to him. He’s a classic conservative in most ways, he’s pragmatic, he knows his stuff, he’s got experience that even a wayward Democrat or two could vote for.

But even though Cruz has Governor Scott Walker’s endorsement, Wisconsin appears ideal for Kasich. Except you can’t even smell the tiniest smoke of a brushfire for Kasich. Somebody give that man a match or they’ll be lighting a candle for his campaign.

Meanwhile, something odd is happening to the Clinton campaign. She’s moved on to New York without bothering too hard to try to win in Wisconsin. Hillary has more super-delegates than God, but even at this late date Bernie (some people think, especially Bernie himself) has a shot. At the very least, he’s become a major painful pebble in Hillary’s presidential shoes.

So what will happen tomorrow, on, let’s call it, Wisconsin Tuesday.

Maybe this time…